Ralph Peters: Down on Iraq

Ralph Peters, who supported the invasion of Iraq, is writing column after column bemoaning that country as a complete lost cause. His latest column is here, and in it he says:

Iraq is failing. No honest observer can conclude otherwise. Even six months ago, there was hope. Now the chances for a democratic, unified Iraq are dwindling fast. The country's prime minister has thrown in his lot with al-Sadr, our mortal enemy. He has his eye on the future, and he's betting that we won't last. The police are less accountable than they were under Saddam. Our extensive investment in Iraqi law enforcement only produced death squads. Government ministers loot the country to strengthen their own factions. Even Iraq's elections — a worthy experiment — further divided Iraq along confessional and ethnic lines. Iraq still exists on the maps, but in reality it's gone. Only a military coup — which might come in the next few years — could hold the artificial country together.

Iraq is failing if we are planning to leave soon in the same way that you are losing money in the stock market if you are planning to sell when the stock is low. Leaving Iraq now would strongly reinforce the world's most dangerous theory, one that was shared by Saddam Hussein, the Taliban and al Qaeda: America's will to fight is transient.

Conveniently, Peters has convinced himself that we can leave Iraq with impunity:

And contrary to the prophets of doom, the United States wouldn't be weakened by our withdrawal, should it come to that. Iraq was never our Vietnam. It's al-Qaeda's Vietnam. They're the ones who can't leave and who can't win.

Islamist terrorists have chosen Iraq as their battleground and, even after our departure, it will continue to consume them.

I suspect that Peters didn't get the memo, the one written by Zarqawi that lays out al Qaeda's plan for conflict in Iraq. What will supposedly "consume them" in Iraq is precisely what they are trying to achieve: sectarian conflict on a massive scale. They gain from that scenario because, as they see it, the Sunnis will open their doors to al Qaeda even more than they already have. That's precisely why al Qaeda started the fighting that has been in effect for 8 months now. In case anyone has lost track of the basics, here they are again:

1. Zarqawi's 2004 memo stated that al Qaeda needs to attack Shiite civilians to provoke Shiite militias into attacking Sunnis
2. al Qaeda took the extremely provocative act of bombing the holy Shiite mosque in Samarra 8 months ago
3. the sectarian fighting we see now occurred in response to that attack, and al Qaeda continues to attack Shiite civilians to make sure the fighting continues

Leaving Iraq now will ensure that the al Qaeda vision comes to fruition. Pretending that it won't happen is not a good idea. Leaving Iraq is what Peters wants to do, but his columns read more like the emotional outbursts of an understandably despondent war supporter than anything else. Just because you are upset doesn't mean that you should do something stupid.

Peters is utterly convinced that Prime Minister Maliki has signed on to Muqtada al Sadr's militia for good. I have no idea how he can be so sure of that. I suspect that Maliki has taken notice of the obvious fact that the Shiite militias are doing to the Sunnis what no one else has been able to do: transforming their will to fight into a fear for their own survival. Cracking down on al Sadr now would instantly reverse that trend (a trend that shows up in polling data).

Al Qaeda has placed bets, and you have got to hand it to them. They have always bet that Americans have no staying power, and they also bet that they could provoke the Shiites into sectarian conflict by relentlessly bombing their holy sites and their people. Well, the Shiites are fighting now, and the election on Tuesday will probably provide concrete evidence that their other bet was a good one to make as well.

Then again, I notice that, as depressed as people are about Iraq, all of the leading candidates for president in 2008 are hawkish on Iraq (McCain, Giuliani, Hillary Clinton). Al Qaeda should not start popping the corks until that changes.