My latest analysis shows that there is good news and bad news from Iraq concerning the troop surge. The good news is that casualties in Baghdad have come down very substantially. The bad news is that casualties elsewhere in Iraq have increased substantially. And, no, it's not because the civil war spilled over to the rest of the country. It's because al Qaeda started targeting innocent Shiite civilians where it was easier to do so. And, no, such attacks do not represent "sectarian violence" between Shiites and Sunnis. Only Democratic Senators and Representatives and mainstream media reporters believe that nonsense. The violence expanded beyond Baghdad because Sunni al Qaeda jihadists are doing everything in their power to get Shiites to kill Sunnis. Civil war is al Qaeda's goal (because it suits their jihadist objectives), and that's how this differs from the civil war schema that Democrats and reporters simply cannot get out of their heads.
Anyway, let's take a look at casualty figures for the just-completed month of March relative to prior months. First, I'll examine civilian casualties in all of Iraq. I show this first because it is the bad news, and you should know the bad news as well as the good. Here it is:
This reflects the situation over the last two years. The black bar represents the month in which al Qaeda terrorists bombed the Golden Mosque in Samarra, which everyone (except, as I said, for Democratic Senators and Representatives) knows was the intentional trigger for the current "civil war" we see now. The two blue bars represent the two months since the troop surge began. The number of casualties for February has been adjusted upward to reflect the number of casualties that would have occurred had there been 31 days in that month (because I don't want anyone to think I am trying to put a happy face on a tough situation). As you can see, the upward spiral in casualties has abated, and things have even improved slightly (but only slightly).
Next, let's look at Baghdad in particular, which is where violence has really been out of control lately:
As you can see, casualties there have come down dramatically since the beginning of troop surge two months ago. That's important because the troop surge is concentrated in Baghdad. Had there been no effect there, the results so far would have been extremely disappointing. But the effect is quite large. Don't get me wrong; causalities are still very high, but a 40% reduction from the peak in January cannot be taken lightly. The troop surge in Baghdad is clearly working even though al Qaeda has taken the opportunity to slaughter Shiites elsewhere in Iraq (which is why casualties in Iraq as a whole have not dropped very much).
One of the reasons why the surge is working is that Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army has decided to cooperate with our efforts. I've known this for a long time, but it appears to be news to some:
Sunday, 1 April 2007
Iraq's Shia militia 'stood down
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani says the Shia militia known as the Mahdi Army has stopped its activities on the orders of its leader, Moqtada Sadr.
The president described this as a new phenomenon, and a positive response to the new Iraqi-US security plan.
His militia was responsible for a huge number of executions in Baghdad prior to the surge. Those executions -- the victims of which were largely young Sunni males -- were designed to stop al Qaeda's malicious offensive against innocent Shiite civilians. In that sense, the actions of the Mahdi Army were not part of a "civil war" either. Al Qaeda is trying to start a civil war by indiscriminately slaughtering Shiite civilians. Muqtada al Sadr was trying to stop them from doing that by executing young Sunni males (the potential al Qaeda foot soldiers and supporters) in Baghdad.
Executions carried out by Shiite militias are always reported like this:
BAGHDAD - The bodies of 32 people were found shot dead on Tuesday in different districts of Baghdad, police said.
Executions of this nature have come way down in Baghdad:
There are still way too many, but Muqtada al Sadr's cooperation with the troop surge has clearly helped a lot. Last month, that cooperation resulted in an increase in attacks by al Qaeda in Baghdad (because, I assume, al Qaeda suddenly had a freer hand with the Mahdi Army out of the way), but this month, our troops appear to have gotten more of a handle on that. Here are the number of deaths in Baghdad due to causes other than executions:
By the grim standards of Baghdad, it was a pretty good month, all thanks to the troop surge. But that doesn't mean you should underestimate al Qaeda. I don't. Back on January 12, I said:
However, al Qaeda proved my predictions for 2006 to be quite wrong, and one would have to be crazy to rule out the possibility that they could do it again. That terrorist organization -- the one that attacked us on 9/11 -- knows that if they can keep the carnage going, the Democrats will push even harder to bring our troops home. And if we do that, al Qadea will have achieved an unprecedented victory over America.
Subsequent events seem to have proven me right as the Democrats passed bills in both the House and the Senate demanding that we effectively surrender to al Qaeda by March of next year. And on February 12, I said:
I sincerely hope the troop surge works, but al Qaeda has a strong hand to play. The more they bomb, the more the media misleadingly talks about "insurgents" and "militias" fighting a "civil war" (as if al Qaeda does not exist), and the more Americans savage their own president and start calling for withdrawal. As such, you can be sure that al Qaeda is lining up the suicide bombers in preparation for the troop surge.
And sure enough, al Qaeda has pulled out all the stops, but now they are doing so in places other than Baghdad:
Tal Afar bomb toll hits 152, deadliest of Iraq war
Tally arrives during week in which more than 500 died in sectarian violence
March 31, 2007
BAGHDAD, Iraq - The Iraqi government raised the death toll on Saturday from a truck bomb in the town of Tal Afar to 152, making it the deadliest single bombing of the four-year-old war.
...
Bombings blamed on Sunni Islamist al-Qaida have killed 400 people in Shiite areas across the country in the past week.
Note the little reminder that al Qaeda is a Sunni organization, as if the reporter is trying to say "don't worry, these are Sunni reprisal attacks against Shiites in the tit-for-tat civil war that we all predicted would happen."
I am sorry to inform this clueless reporter that this bombing was not a reprisal attack in a tit-for-tat civil war. Instead, it was al Qaeda deliberately trying to get Shiite militias to start killing Sunni civilians. I am simply amazed that this is not more widely understood. Thanks to a clueless media (and an equally clueless Democratic leadership), Americans see these bombings as the latest episodes in a demoralizing civil war. But that's not what they are at all.
It is not a civil war. Instead, it is al Qaeda fighting against the people of Iraq. Yes, the Sunni insurgents initially allied themselves with al Qaeda in their fight against the hated Americans, but even they are finally coming to realize that the civil war that al Qaeda is trying to provoke is not helpful to them in any way:
April 1, 2007
Sunnis try to blast Al-Qaeda out of Iraq
Sunni insurgent groups that were previously allied with Al-Qaeda in Iraq have turned against it, killing its leaders, attacking its supporters and vowing to drive it out of the country.
At least two Al-Qaeda commanders have been killed by Iraqi insurgents in Baghdad. Others have been forced to flee after insurgents passed their details to US and Iraqi commanders. Fierce fighting has broken out between insurgent groups and Al-Qaeda in Anbar province, west of Baghdad.
Until the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, in a US airstrike last summer, the groups cooperated with it in their bloody struggle with the coalition forces. But the insurgents have come to believe that Al-Qaeda in Iraq is destabilising the country by the indiscriminate slaughter of civilians, often with truck bombs.
I know how much liberals treasure the idea that this is just a civil war in Iraq, the very civil war they predicted would happen if George Bush launched his "misbegotten adventure" in Iraq. Because they predicted civil war, all information from Iraq is processed through that obsolete schema. That's why Democrats have adopted an eerie code of silence about al Qaeda in Iraq. In terms of their sacred schema, al Qaeda in Iraq does not compute, therefore it does not exist.
But it does exist, and it killed nearly 400 innocent Iraqis in the last two weeks alone. In Iraq, it has become a war between al Qaeda on the one hand, and the Shiites and Sunnis on the other. Al Qaeda has killed more innocent people in Iraq in the last few days than it has killed elsewhere in the world in the last year (including Afghanistan, which is where leading Democrats preposterously want to go to fight al Qaeda). If more Americans understood this, their interest in seeing us withdraw from Iraq -- thereby effectively surrendering to the terrorist organization that attacked us on 9/11 -- would diminish considerably. I think that might be why Democrats refuse to discuss al Qaeda in Iraq even as it slaughters hundreds of innocent civilians there every month. It is downright surreal that al Qaeda can fill your TV and computer screens with the blood of hundreds of innocent Iraqis every other week, yet Democrats act as if they are not there and are wreaking havoc in Afghanistan instead (where al Qaeda is largely dormant).
Americans don't realize that we are in a fight with al Qaeda and their affiliated jihadists in Iraq. And they don't know because the media equates attacks by al Qaeda with the phrase "sectarian violence." Look at this MSNBC headline again:
Tal Afar bomb toll hits 152, deadliest of Iraq war
Tally arrives during week in which more than 500 died in sectarian violence
Wrong. More than 400 of those deaths were caused by al Qaeda, not because they are Sunnis who hate Shiites but because they want Shiites to start killing Sunnis. It is wrong to call that "sectarian violence," and doing so just reinforces the obsolete schema that governs the thinking of Democratic leaders and mainstream media reporters, all of whom are sure they see a civil war spontaneously erupting before their very eyes. What they are seeing instead is al Qaeda fighting against Iraq and, more to the point, against America. We either stay in Iraq and defeat them, or we leave on a timetable and lose to them. That's your choice, take your pick. There are no other choices.
61 comments:
Thanks. I am now hopelessly depressed.
The only bright spot is we have a president who is going to keep fighting regardless of what Congress does.
One man, one spine, that's what we're down to in the fight against terror.
How very sad.
We have a president who is going to keep fighting regardless of what anyone says.
Where's the chart that shows the number of American troops who have died since the 'surge' began? Those little bars didn't change too much at all did they?
By the way it's no longer a war, it's an occupation. The war ended when 'mission accomplished' occured.
My understanding is that the surge will not hit full strength until around June, which makes these statistics very promising at this early stage....
"Where's the chart that shows the number of American troops who have died since the 'surge' began? Those little bars didn't change too much at all did they?"
Where did that "brutal Iraqi summer" go, and the "Bloody Battle for Baghdad" etc, etc, etc.
You can 'prove' anything you want by using a selective memory and selective data.
Perhaps returning to the 2002 (or was it '03? As Casey Stengel said, "you can look it up.") statement by Joe Biden and Chuck Hagel worried about needing 'a decade' of occupation and worrying that Bush would be unwilling to stay that long would help your memory.
Oddly enough, it's easy to carp when you don't have to be responsible for the positions you take.
The surege may as you note be somewhat effective but then you must ask (1) why did Al Qaeda go into Iraq to begin with since they were not there previous to our invasion,(2) what of the 3 million professions and educated who have fed their own country leaving behind a population despraely in need of hem, (3) utilities etc are still in much worse shape than they had previous (to the sar) been, (4) how long will American forces have to stay there, constantly on rotation, in order to maintain the level you state is now taking place of a better Iraq, (5) why do you have to badmuth the Democrats, who seem now to speak for the American public if the last election and recent polls are an indication? Either the surge is much better or it is not. No need to get oddly partisan unless, well, you know...
It seems to me that an "occupation" is one where the "occupied" want the "occupiers" out immediately. If there are any occupiers that the Iraqi's want out now, it is al Qaeda, not the coalition.
The mission of the initial attack, to oust Sadaam Hussein, was certainly accomplished as stated. I believe that he was just recently hung, was he not?
The ongoing mission, to leave Iraq to the Iraqi's and not the foreign terrorists, is clearly ongoing and, with the surge and the new strategy (see Arthur Herman's article at: http://www.opinionjournal.com/federation/feature/?id=110009862&mod=RSS_Opinion_Journal&ojrss=frontpage for a brilliant description of just how significant this is) as this post is showing, has a real chance of succeeding.
How is a few bar charts showing a few sets of numbers a "quantitative analysis". And why would anyone trust such an obvious partisan to create a believable analysis in the first place? Most of this is silly childish Rush Limbaugh rhetoric. You are a moron.
Part of our rationale for going in to Iraq to fight them over there, not here in America. So don't get all wobbly and weepy and say that the bombing of the mosque started this civil war. We set the table.
"why do you have to badmuth the Democrats, who seem now to speak for the American public if the last election and recent polls are an indication?"
Because you don't fight wars based on public opinion polls. The problem is the Dems can't see past the polls and the next election.
Do you seriously believe that if we pull out then that is the end of it? That Al Qaeda will leave us alone?
Al Qaeda is pursuing a global war against the west and Iraq is now the front line. And that's a good thing because it is a lot easier to hunt them down and kill them in Iraq than searching the entire globe.
If we pull out next year, I guarantee you American troops will be back within 10 years and the war will be bigger and more destructive than you can ever imagine. Imagine a theater of war stretching from Lebanon through Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and ending in Pakistan.
Establishing a stable democracy in the middle of those countries can destabilize the dictators and change the dynamics of the entire region for the better.
Finally, we have enemies. They intend to attack and kill us where they find us. Running and hiding won't change their mind or behavior, it simply shifts the front line from one area of the world to another.
There are moments in history when you have to fight because your enemies won't give you any other option. This is one of those moments.
Iraqi figures estimate civilian deaths in violence across the country rose by 13% last month, despite the security crackdown in Baghdad.
Data compiled by several ministries put civilian deaths in March at 1,861 - compared with 1,645 for February.
James,
To say "You are a moron" is to engage in adolescent name-calling. It would be better to make an argument and then defend it if you disagree with what I have to say. I notice that several posters want to change the subject to "the blame game." OK, let's blame Bush for this mess we are in with Iraq. Rage at the man until you have no more rage left. And, when you are through with that, then let's get back to the point of my post.
No matter who is to blame, al Qaeda either is or is not doing what I claim they are doing in Iraq. If they are, how do you account for Democratic leaders wanting to withdraw so we can rush off to Afghanistan to fight al Qaeda? And how do you account for their eerie silence on the issue of al Qaeda in Iraq. If al Qaeda is not doing what I claim, how do you defend that assertion?
You can call me a few more names if it makes you feel better, but, when you are through, I hope you will try your hand at answering these questions.
Engram
David Still,
Note that I adjusted February figures upward so they would reflect the number of casualties that would have occurred had there been 31 days in that month (instead of 28). If I had not done that, my figures would show an 18% increase in casualties from February to March. So, my numbers pretty much agree with yours, except that I removed the different time base that partly accounts for the apparent increase in March.
Engram
"(1) why did Al Qaeda go into Iraq to begin with since they were not there previous to our invasion"
This simply is not true. Read "Saddam's al Qaeda Connection" at http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/003/033jgqyi.asp?pg=1.
"what of the 3 million professions and educated who have fed their own country leaving behind a population despraely in need of hem"
what is your source?
"(3) utilities etc are still in much worse shape than they had previous (to the sar) been"
This is also not true. Read "Our surveys on electricity matched what the Coalition Provisional Authority is reporting: improvements in most of the country, except central Iraq. More areas of the country have electricity, and overall production has exceeded prewar levels." by ABC News, no less! at: http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=129334
"(4) how long will American forces have to stay there, constantly on rotation, in order to maintain the level you state is now taking place of a better Iraq," as long as it takes or until we get a "Cut and Run" Democrat as President, which ever happens first.
"(5) why do you have to badmuth the Democrats, who seem now to speak for the American public if the last election and recent polls are an indication?"
Because the Cut and Run Democrats, along with their allies in the drive-by media, want the U.S. to lose in Iraq. Why else are they trying to prevent our new strategy from even having a chance, much less from working?
You lost me when you got to the month old claim about Sadr being quelled.
From yesterday's NYT
“Four years have passed since the occupation of our beloved country, the Iraq of Islam, by the great Satan, America, and its followers, who want to erase Islam from the world in order to maintain peace for themselves,” Mr. Sadr said.
He called on all Iraqis to “hoist Iraqi flags on the rooftops of homes, buildings and government offices as a sign of the sovereignty of Iraq and its independence, and to reject the presence of the flags of America and America’s allies in our country until they leave.”
“In the end, I renew my demands for the withdrawal of the occupier from our land,” he said.
He's calling for that mass protest on April 9th. Does that sound like a neutralized threat to you?
And by the way, have you got any actual empirical evidence to back up your claim that the so-called imaginary civil war is actually being conducted by hordes of AQ? Because every credible analysis I've seen has said exactly the opposite.
Libby Spencer,
Thanks for the response. You views seem to correspond to the standard view of mainstream media reporters and Democratic politicians. You actually don't seem to believe that al Qaeda is responsible for a huge number of civilian casualties in Iraq. I can hardly believe that there is a single person in America who thinks along those lines, but you are actually in the majority. People need to get up to speed on this issue (you included).
You ask for evidence. Can't you tell from this one post of mine that I am an evidence-based thinker? Click on the key phrase "Al Qaeda in Iraq" at the bottom of my post, and you will find mountains of evidence. Everything from quarterly defense department reports to Zarqawi's captured letter, which spelled out al Qaeda's plan for Iraq in great detail. Al Qaeda in Iraq is real, and it is powerful. It's scary to me that people think I am making this up for fun.
I know that you have not studied this issue. If you had, you would not be incredulous that al Qaeda was launching these attacks in Iraq. No serious person denies it, though many ignore it. That's how I kinow you are not telling the truth when you say that every credible analysis denies al Qaeda's central role.
Study up. Your Democratic leaders do not want you to do that, but I do. I want your opinion to be based on evidence, not on an emotional schema. You won't like what you find.
Also, Muqtada al Sadr has been an anti-American zealot since day 1, and he always will be. He hates us with a passion, and he wants us out. But he is cooperating with the troop surge anyway. That's why executions in Baghdad have come way down. I predicted that outcome way in advance, but it was an easy prediction to make (because I paid attention to what our military commanders were saying back in the Fall).
Engram
It seems to me that an "occupation" is one where the "occupied" want the "occupiers" out immediately. If there are any occupiers that the Iraqi's want out now, it is al Qaeda, not the coalition.
Terrible misrepresentation of reality. For G*d's sake, look a polling data. It exists. A majority of Iraqi citizens, approve of attacks on US forces. A vast majority believe our presence makes things worse and want us out.
These aren't opinions, they're statistics.
I'm glad the blogger is at least attempting to analyze the situation in a quantitative manner.
Whatever baloney links you might float from the Weekly Standard, Al-Qaeda was nonexistent in Iraq before the war started. It's our massive military presence and the presence of mass communal violence that allowed them room to grow and prosper.
Where's the chart that shows the number of American troops who have died since the 'surge' began? Those little bars didn't change too much at all did they?
So, you're saying that, even with more Americans in Iraq, the same number per month are dying. If the surge was a faillure, wouldn't you expect the number of soldiers killed this month to have increased?
Likewise, this question about why al Qaeda is in Iraq, or when they came, is completely immaterial to how we deal with them now, and I think it shows the lack of perspective that so completely defines the anti-war movement. These self indulgent and morally vain people think that it's better to blame Bush for the existence of al Qaeda than it is to do anything about it. After 9/11 it became clear that we were going to have to fight al Qaeda all over the world, and that we'd be fighting for a very long time. So why now are we so surprised and dismayed that now we're still fighting al Qaeda? Iraq seems as good a place as any to al Qaeda for numerous reasons:
1)It isn't here. Were al Qaeda able to fight us in our territory, they'd have a much greater advantage than they do now, because they'd be able to wreak havoc on our economy and civil society, weakening us immeasurably.
2) It's on their turf, in which their denied a safehaven and a base for regrouping. It's also had the salutorious effect of turning other muslims against them, as other muslims realize that they can expect no less of the brutality that al Qaeda visits upon non-believers. I believe that to many muslims the image of al Qaeda as heroic jihadists has tranformed into one of the most depraved and barbaric thugs. Don't expect that image to fade soon.
3)liberal democracy, though not perfect and up to reinterpretation by various cultures, is the best system governing system ever known to humanity. The only hope for bringing the Middle East into harmony with the rest of the world ultimately is to bring about democratic reform and to supplant religious absolutism with that of individual rights.
How are things supposed to get better from this point on?
Since Libby Spencer cross-posted his identical comment at my place as well as here, I'll cross-post my identical response:
Does that sound quelled to you?
Actually, yes.
Flag-flying, rallies, and Mr. Sadr’s call for a “peaceful antioccupation mass protest on April 9,” all while encouraging his militia to change course and “not provoke” violent confrontation–that certainly does sound quelled.
Ah, the dreaded unserious accusation. I'm crushed. Surely I should have limited my reading solely to partisan outlets that support your point so you would think me serious.
I'm not going to debate this all day but I'll just state for the record that I've been blogging this occupation for three years and I read a wide range of news, analysis and opinions from all sides of the spectrum every single day. I'll put my archives up against your archives any day of the week.
You can cook the books any way you want but you can't change the fact that the Bush Iraq policy is bankrupt.
And since we're crossposting here this afternoon, I'll copy my reponse to Mr. Krumm's reply as well.
Well then we’ll have to agree to disagree Mr. Krumm because it sounds like a tinder keg waiting to explode to me. The rhetoric may be somewhat concillatory but it sounds like a code word for take it to the streets. It’s not like the Sadr supporters have a long history of peaceful protest.
Glasnost,
It is not a misrepresentation to say that we are not an occupying force. The democratically elected government of Iraq says that they cannot yet survive without American troops, though they want us to leave as soon as they can handle security on their own. We'd be an occupying force if we staying despite the objections of the government.
It is true that polls show that:
(a) the people of Iraq consider themselves to be better off now than they were under Saddam (yes, it's true)
--and--
(b) they don't like us, they want us out, and they approve of attacks against coalition forces
--and--
(c) they absolutely despise al Qaeda
The Iraqis could have voted Muqtada al Sadr into office if they really wanted us kicked out by the government. They didn't.
An opinion poll does not determine whether or not this is an occupation. The position of the democratically government of Iraq does, and their position is quite clear.
And it's probably true that al Qaeda was not much of a force in Iraq until we created the conditions for that to happen. But the only important issue now is what to do about the fact that they are there and are working towards our defeat. Do you think we should let them win and turn Iraq into a global base of jihadist operations to teach Bush a lesson?
Engram
Libby Spencer "...the Bush Iraq policy is bankrupt."
Anyone who reduces the complicated nature of real events to such absolute terms abandons the pretense of thoughtful consideration. You have completely undermined anything you have written which might be useful.
I hope the surge works. But looking at what you wrote, I can't be as optimistic as you are. Casualties in Baghdad are down because Al Qaeda has shifted its tactics in response to the surge --
carrying out more attacks outside of Baghdad and fewer inside. But presumably if the US put more troops in the whole country, Al Qaeda would not give up. Instead, they would simply return their level of attacks in Baghdad and elsewhere to pre-surge levels, since the reason that caused them to move out of Baghdad would not longer apply.
That said, the fact that many Sunnis are turning against Al Qaeda is a better reason for hope. That, rather than an increase in the number of Americans, will make it much more difficult for them to operate.
What is interesting is to take a look at something like overall death rate/1,000 for a year like 2005, from Indexmundi, and see exactly what the 'violence in Iraq' is doing to its position in the charts of all Nations. Out of 223 Nations charted it falls 179th on overall deaths/1,000 trailing even the US which is at 108 out of 223 with 8.83 deaths/1,000. Now that is due to an older population base which is getting greyer and dying out at a faster rate. That is shown out in average life expectancy at birth/1,000, with the US living longer, at 45th with 77.71 years while Iraq is at 140th with 68.7 years, thusly a larger and older population, even with a longer life expectancy tends to die off faster than a younger but less long lived population, although much of that is due to a positive migration rate, while Iraq, even with its large outpouring of Sunni Arabs seems to be offset by other factors, most likely returning Sunni and Shia Arabs who had fled during Saddam's reign. While Mr. Wixted does break out executions in Baghdad, that is also seen as "Revenge Killings" in Iraq which were the topper, if memory serves, from 2003-2005 amongst all killings. Basically Shia and Kurds getting revenge on Sunni Arabs that had collaborated with the Saddam regime. Overall birth rate/1,000 in Iraq was high in 2005 with 32.5 (50th) vice the US with 14.14 (156th) which would be a 'baby boom' phenomena increasing the overall population from 24 million or so under Saddam to 26.7 million today. Infant mortality in Iraq was 50.25 per 1,000 live births (65th) compared with the US with only 6.5 per 1,000 (182nd).
But that is thoroughly unfair to compare a modernized, industrialized society with one trying to pull itself out of decades of tyranny, repression and industrial neglect by a dictator. While Afghanistan would be good for a size comparison Iraq (26 million) and Afghanistan ( 30 million) the two nations did not start with even remotely comparable infrastructure. The next door neighbor Iran, however, although much larger (68 million) has had many of the same infrastructure problems as Iraq had and a generally idea that in the mid-1970s they were pretty fair comparisons on sophistication and infrastructure, but like Saddam's Iraq the regime has pretty tight controls on information there and thus statistics are suspect just as they were under Saddam's Iraq. Really hard to find a good analog to Iraq with a generally younger population coming out from an authoritarian structure and yet having some basis for infrastructure that has not been well kept up. Eastern European Nations, the ex-Russian Republics and similar Nations all have non-similarities in demographic profile due to age, or lack of existing infrastructure.
On pure statistics (Mark Twain duly remembered), the actual death rate for Iraq is there due to increased births and survival rate from birth onwards. Certainly there are places where your chances of dying is much, much greater like Haiti or even Afghanistan, both of which have infrastructure problems far and away surpassing that of Iraq, and the corruption problems in Haiti making that endemic for the last 70 years or so. Most of Africa fits in that, too, and actually, most Nations on Earth doing a poorer job of keeping their populations alive than is going on in Iraq... and a huge percentage of those are dictatorships or one-party rule situations, that turn into some form of kleptocracy.
What is missing, however, are the huge numbers dead that come from a civil war or ethnic cleansing scenario as seen in Rwanda or parts of the Balkans. Or the US Civil war with a total population around 31 million at the outbreak and losing 600,000 dead over 4 years of fighting. I would expect that a somewhat smaller population base of Iraq would see something similar, what with all the automatic weapons, RPGs and modern equipment available. Say 2,000 a week... you know, a *real* civil war... even Saddam had problems getting to that, but not for lack of trying.
"(5) why do you have to badmuth the Democrats, who seem now to speak for the American public if the last election and recent polls are an indication?"
Well, aside from the fact that badmouthing the Dems is a lot of fun (if a bit like shooting fish in a barrel), there's also the fact that according to your much-ballyhooed "recent polls", the Dem-controlled congress has a lower approval than Bush. Now how does that figure into your worldview?
"Where's the chart that shows the number of American troops who have died since the 'surge' began? Those little bars didn't change too much at all did they?"
That's actually significant, given that the lib line has been that "escalation" would lead only to an increase in troop deaths. More troops + steady level of troop casualties = lower rate of violence against troops.
engram,
Thanks for the response. I understand what you've said about the legal answer to the question of whether we're an occupation. It doesn't matter much. Functionally, we're an occupation. If you want to understand the dynamics, that's what they are. The legalities are all but a fig leaf. I personally believe that the government doesn't ask for us to leave because the government sleeps safer in its beds with US soldiers guarding them.
As for:
And it's probably true that al Qaeda was not much of a force in Iraq until we created the conditions for that to happen. But the only important issue now is what to do about the fact that they are there and are working towards our defeat. Do you think we should let them win and turn Iraq into a global base of jihadist operations to teach Bush a lesson?
My answer is that you're confusing keeping the neccesary assets in the area to whack Al-Quieda as neccesary, with the massive fight we're currently engaged in. As you've said, the Sunnis don't like Al-Queda. Neither do the regional Sunni overlords funding the insurgency. We'll never really wipe out Al-Queda while they have the ability to hide within the much larger Sunni insurgency amalgam. This war protects Al-Quieda. That's my belief.
Amdocs is blackmailing America's "leaders." That's why they're making such insane decisions: http://dinoberry.googlepages.com/home
It is almost irrelevant what the statistics are for just TWO MONTHS. That is not statistically significant. If you consider the variance of death rate over the course of the war, a 40% reduction is not in any way outstanding. IE, there have been other times where a month-over-month drop of that magnitude was achieved. Ditto for troop casualty rates. However, if you do attribute the drop to the increased troop strength, how long must we station the exta 24,000 troops in Baghdad? I am sure the numbers required to cover the rest of Iraq will not scale and the duration required is not sustainable. What needs to happen is the Iraqi army must stand up in the next 6 months and replace man-for-man US soldiers so that we can get the hell out of Iraq. I think a war spending bill that puts a timeline on Iraq is COMPLETELY appropriate. And that has nothing to do with Dems vs. Bush. My reasoning comes from the fact that if we don't have a set limit on how long the US will have to prop up the Iraqi's we will never be out of there. What incentive is there for the Iraqi's to control their own security when the US will do it and pay the price. The Iraqis should know that there is a limit to our generosity.
Anonymous wrote: "We have a president who is going to keep fighting regardless of what anyone says."
Or, you could also say, "We have a president who is going to keep sending other people off to die for his failed policy based on lies and deceptions that he refuses to change regardless of how often he is shown it a catastrophe."
One small problem, US deaths in Iraq are increasing.
January through February of this year 237 US soldiers have been killed which has only been higher once in the last 2 years.
The number killed in January and (82) February (80) and March (79) was higher than all but 2 months last year.
As such American deaths have not decreased in fact they have increased since the surge started and April is looking like being worse.
Support for the war is one thing but it should not come at the expense of the truth.
The author is a victim of "either/or," "black and white thinking." The author also selectively omits.
For example, the author says, "no, it's not because the civil war spilled over to the rest of the country. It's because al Qaeda started targeting innocent Shiite civilians where it was easier to do so. And, no, such attacks do not represent "sectarian violence" between Shiites and Sunnis."
The author selectively omits a portion of the group's name in order to make the group appear indistinguishable from the other non-Iraqi al Qaeda. But DOH! ... al-Qaeda-in-Mesopotamia's membership is mostly Iraqi. Organized Sunni Iraqis killing unorganized Shiite Iraqi civilians? Say it ain't so!
The author attempts to paint a picture where sectarian violence resembling a civil war doesn't exist. But it does. And so does the al Qaeda (in-Mesopotamia) violence. A rose by any other name is just as um, .... sour.
The author also says, "... you have to be careful because they occasionally throw in casualty reports that don't belong there." Um, "reports that don't belong there?" Such as, oh, uh .... I don't know, uh, maybe, .... uh.... the number of US troop deaths? Why does the author hate the troops?
Dead enders try to paint Iraq with one color. It is in actual fact many, simultaneously. Real life is like that. Real life is totally different than a PNAC pdf, a Bush speech, or a Krauthammer op/ed.
This author isn't completely out-to-lunch, but he's definitely drunk on kool aid.
ROFL! I love watching Liberals spin the news. It is so entertaining. I have a bunch of libs denying Islamofacist. Watching them stick their head in the sand and exposing their asses to be repeatively kicked is amusing. Keep entertaining us my friends.
cclezel
After weeks of hearing that the surge is working, I still can't find a figure for how many Iraqis are still left. How can the death rate be maintained if so many have already died or moved out of the country? It seems that eventually ya run out of ducks if ya keep shootin em outa the sky... so duck killing is on the decline... ?
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The American people trust that Barack Obama will conscientiously address Iraq issues.
LONG LIVE PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!
Barack Obama is a racial-minority individual and does not like racism:
I know it may be hard to believe.
However, it is absolutely true that Ronald Wilson Reagan committed horrible, racist, hate crimes during his presidency.
A lot of people know about Reagan’s infamy.
And a lot of people will know about Reagan’s infamy—even until the end of human existence: they’ll find out.
Numbers 32:23: “Be sure your sins will find you out.”
Respectfully Submitted by Andrew Yu-Jen Wang, J.D. Candidate
B.S., With the Highest Level of Academic Honors at Graduation, 1996
Messiah College, Grantham, PA
Lower Merion High School, Ardmore, PA, 1993
(I can type 90 words per minute, and there are thousands of copies on the Internet indicating the content of this post. And there are thousands of copies in very many countries around the world.)
_________________
‘If only there could be a ban against invention that bottled up memory like scent & it never faded & it never got stale.’ It came from my Lower Merion High School yearbook.
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