Syria, in the News

Three recent reports from Syria caught my attention in recent days. The first two caught the attention of a lot of people, but the third seems to have been largely overlooked.

First, the highly respected Jane's Defence Weekly reported that Iranians and Syrians died in a chemical weapons explosion back in July:

Report: Iranians Among Dead in Chemical Weapons Blast at Syrian Base

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

LONDON — A Syrian military installation rocked by an explosion in July was being used to develop chemical weapons, and Iranian engineers were among those killed, a respected defense publication reported Wednesday.

Jane's Defence Weekly said the blast hit the site of a joint Iranian/Syrian project to fit short-range ballistic missiles with chemical warheads.

The July 26 explosion struck a military complex outside the city of Aleppo, killing at least 15 soldiers and wounding 50 others, according to Syria's state news agency, SANA. The agency said the blast was caused when high summer temperatures set off high-explosive materials at a weapons depot.

But Jane's cited Syrian defense sources as saying the explosion took place during a test to fit a "Scud C" missile with a mustard-gas warhead. It quoted the sources as saying the explosion occurred when fuel caught fire in the missile production laboratory.

"The blast dispersed chemical agents (including VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent) across the storage facility and outside," the publication quoted the sources as saying.

The magazine said that, in addition to the 15 Syrian troops, "dozens" of Iranian weapons engineers were killed.

Jane's, based in southern England, said the chemical weapons program was part of a strategic co-operation accord signed between Syria and Iran in November 2005.

The magazine quoted Syrian opposition sources as backing up the claim that Iranians were at the site. They said vehicles destined for car-bomb attacks in Iraq were prepared at the same military camp under the supervision of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Syrian intelligence services.

Second, the Israelis bombed a Syrian weapons site a week ago, and more and more information is coming to light about the target. It seems that the Syrians and the North Koreans may have been cooperating to build a nuclear bomb (so the Israelis decided to terminate the program):

From The Sunday Times
September 23, 2007

Israelis seized nuclear material in Syrian raid

Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem.

The attack was launched with American approval on September 6 after Washington was shown evidence the material was nuclear related, the well-placed sources say.

They confirmed that samples taken from Syria for testing had been identified as North Korean. This raised fears that Syria might have joined North Korea and Iran in seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

Third, despite these apparent moves in the direction acquiring WMD (a truly suicidal decision by Syria's leader), there was this recent news as well:

Fewer Foreigners Crossing Into Iraq From Syria to Fight

Drop Parallels Dip in Al-Qaeda Attacks

By Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 16, 2007; Page A19

The number of foreign fighters entering Iraq from Syria has decreased noticeably in recent months, corresponding to a similar decrease in suicide bombings and other attacks by the group al-Qaeda in Iraq, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials.

"There is an early indication of a trend," said Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, in an interview. Border crossings from Syria that averaged 80 to 90 a month have fallen to "half or two-thirds of that over the last two or three months," Petraeus said.

As I have noted recently, casualties in the month of September would seem to be consistent with this. Background violence is way down. The only missing elements from the civilian casualty total are deaths due to al Qaeda's foreign suicide bombers. Last month, 1598 civilian deaths were recorded at Iraq Coalition Casualty Count. Of those, more than 600 were killed by suicide bombers. This month, with one week to go, about 540 civilians have been killed overall (roughly 180 per week), but very few have been killed by suicide bombers. For al Qaeda's body accountants to match last month's casualty count, more than 1000 civilians will need to be killed over the next 7 days. In the past, al Qaeda has always come through, but they've never had to overcome a deficit this large. Unless they do, the Democrats are going to have a really hard time arguing that General Petraeus is "cooking the books." But if al Qaeda does come through with an unprecedented killing spree like that, the Democrats are going to have a really hard time continuing to deny that al Qaeda is the enemy in Iraq.

Anyway, given that Syria is suicidally pursuing WMDs, why has the flow of foreign suicide bombers from that country been on the decline? Here is one possibility from the article:

A National Intelligence Estimate last month attributed an apparent crackdown in Syria to that government's concern about the threat al-Qaeda posed to its own stability. The NIE also assessed that Syria had stepped up its support to non-al-Qaeda groups to bolster their influence -- and that of Damascus -- in Iraq. Several Iraqi Sunni extremist groups opposed to the United States and al-Qaeda in Iraq are present in Damascus.

I found that NIE here, and sure enough, it says:

Syria has cracked down on some Sunni extremist groups attempting to infiltrate fighters into Iraq through Syria because of threats they pose to Syrian stability, but the IC now assesses that Damascus is providing support to non-AQI groups inside Iraq in a bid to increase Syrian influence.

I guess all three stories make sense when considered in light of this. As with the Sunnis in Iraq, the Syrians seem to have turned against al Qaeda as well. Not because they favor stability in Iraq but because they, like the Sunnis of the Anbar Province, have come to appreciate the fact that al Qaeda is not good for them.

I wonder how many people realize that if al Qaeda is taken out of the equation, casualties in Iraq will come way, way down (as they have in the first 3 weeks of this month)? Left wing anti-Bush fanatics don't know this because they believe that al Qaeda is just a tiny part of the equation, one that is preposterously exaggerated by neocons in an effort to deny that Iraq has simply fallen into a big ol' civil war. But I track casualties in Iraq, and anyone who does that knows better. If the Syrians keep this up, and if General Petraeus maintains his hot pursuit of AQI leadership, casualties are going to drop in a big way. Maybe now, maybe later, but it will happen so long as Syria continues to close the door.

Meanwhile, in every other way, Syria (like Iran) has apparently decided to be an enemy of the United States, and that may have contributed to the fact that George Bush gave his blessing to the Israeli attack on what may have been a Syrian nuclear facility.