Rethinking the Leadership of the G7

After today's vote, I think I'm going to have to rephrase how I describe the leaders of the G7 nations. Obama fans (and Obama himself) typically claim that America must restore its "standing in the world." This seems like an urgent need to people like Obama and his supporters because of opinion poll result like these from the Pew Global Attitudes Survey:


More recent findings seem to suggest a slight improvement in America's image, but it is still quite negative overall. Thus, it is imperative that we "restore" our image by electing the man who will do what the world wants him to do (e.g., be less inclined to militarily topple genocidal dictators, sign the Kyoto Protocol despite its negative consequences for the US economy and its virtual irrelevance in the battle against global C02 emissions, etc.).

In response to this sense of urgency, I usually ask some simple questions. First, what tangible result will accrue to America if, in opinion polls, people around the world now say that they like us better? I'd like them to respond that way for their own sake (just as we in America feel better when we like the president of France), but I've never been able to identify any tangible gain for America itself.

Second, what matters far more than mere opinion polls are the kinds of poll you take on election day (such as today in America). Do these negative feeling about America translate into the election of anti-American leaders? To find out, I follow who people elect in the nations of the G7 (namely, the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Canada,and Japan). These are the democracies with the largest economies in the world. Together, they make up something like 65% of the world GDP (according to this report, at least). The elected leaders of these nations probably have a lot to say about whether or not their countries will cooperate with diplomatic initiatives and bolster economic ties. What is the story with respect to the leaders of the G7 now that George Bush has gone and ruined everything? Do the people of the G7 act on their anti-American feelings, or do they tend to vote for pro-American leaders despite those feelings?

In Italy, we recently had this news:

Conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi has scored a decisive victory in Italy's parliamentary elections, setting the billionaire and staunch US ally on course for his third stint as premier.

The victory is a remarkable return to power for 71-year-old Mr Berlusconi, avenging his loss two years ago at the hand of the centre-left.
...
Mr Berlusconi once said that he agreed with the US regardless of Washington's position. He calls US president George Bush a friend and his return to power is likely to make relations with Washington warmer, no matter who becomes the next American president.

What about Germany and Canada? Their most recent elections were summarized like this:

A Defeat for Anti-Americanism

Saturday, January 28, 2006; Page A20

ACCORDING TO his opponent, Canadian Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper exposed "an agenda really drawn from the extreme right in the United States." He favored the Iraq war, opposed the Kyoto treaty on global warming, and is a social conservative to boot. He might just become -- heaven forbid -- "the most pro-American leader in the Western world." His victory would -- O, Canada! -- "put a smile on George W. Bush's face." Despite all those scary warnings, Mr. Harper and his party won Canada's election on Monday. That put an end to 12 years of increasingly incoherent and corrupt rule by the Liberal Party -- as well as the cynical and irresponsible attempt of its leader, outgoing Prime Minister Paul Martin, to use anti-Americanism.

Mr. Martin becomes the second G-8 leader in four months to exit from office after discovering that anti-U.S. demagoguery is no longer enough to win an election. Gerhard Schroeder, the former German chancellor, also tried to rescue his political career last fall by parading his differences with Mr. Bush; the result was the victory of Angela Merkel, who has moved swiftly to repair relations with Washington. Interestingly, both Mr. Schroeder and Mr. Martin won previous campaigns by playing anti-American cards, in 2002 and 2004 respectively. While it's not clear that the level of ill feeling toward the United States or its president has changed much in Germany or Canada, it's obviously not the foremost concern of voters fed up with domestic mismanagement -- or, perhaps, political venality.

Italy, Canada and Germany all elected pro-U.S. leaders? Who'd have thought that possible in light of America's "image" in the world? Let's consider the most recent election in France, which has been especially anti-American in recent years:

France Elects U.S.-Friendly Conservative

PARIS, May 7, 2007

(CBS/AP) Nicolas Sarkozy, a blunt and uncompromising pro-American conservative, was elected president of France Sunday with a mandate to chart a new course for an economically sluggish nation struggling to incorporate immigrants and the younger generations.

Who leads Japan these days? Until recently, this guy did:

TOKYO - Ruling party elder and political moderate Yasuo Fukuda is expected to win today's contest for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party, a victory virtually certain to make him the next prime minister of Japan in a parliamentary vote Tuesday.
...
Fukuda, 71, who would become the first son of a prime minister to take the job, brushed off questions yesterday about his Cabinet lineup on his way to a debate with his opponent, former foreign minister Taro Aso.
...
Fukuda is hardly the most charismatic or dynamic politician in Japan. The son of a former prime minister, he prefers gray suits, classical music, and moderate pro-American policies.

Well, he just resigned and we'll see who leads the nation after the next real election there, but I don't see strong signs of an anti-American trend caused by George Bush's policies.

Finally, the United Kingdom. Their most recent elected leader was the staunchly pro-American Tony Blair, and they have not yet held a national election to name his successor. Their current leader is Gordon Brown. He may not be as pro-American as his predecessor, but he is probably a lot more pro-American than some Americans are:

Katie Couric: "Finally Mr Prime Minister, ideally, what would you like the American people to know about you?"

Gordon Brown: "That I'm very pro-American and I've always been so. I feel America and Europe, and America and Britain in particular, because ours is a very special relationship, I feel that America and Britain can achieve so much in the next few years."

In summary, if you count George Bush as being pro-American (which seems fair), then all 7 leaders of the G7 now fall into that category. If they were all anti-American instead (like Jacques Chirac was), then popularity polls showing that America's image in the world is sinking would be more meaningful. In fact, it is precisely because of results like these that I do not attach much weight to America's "popularity" in the world, and I feel no urgent need to "restore" that image so that I can once again " walk with my head held high."

And here is where I'm going to have to change the way I describe the various losing politicians in the G7 elections. In Germany, for example, I categorized loser Gerhard Schroeder as anti-American and winner Angela Merkel as pro-American. In France, I categorized the extremely unpopular Jacques Chirac as anti-American and recent winner Nicholas Sarkozy as pro-American.

Well, starting today, I think I need to be a bit more diplomatic in how I characterize these people because we are about to elect our own Jacques Chirac. That is, ironically, the United States will be the first of the G7 nations to elect someone I might have undiplomatically characterized as being anti-American were he running for president in another country. So, from now on, I'll use different terms to categorize these people, like "proudly-pro-American" and "less-proudly-pro-American," or something like that. The proudly pro-Americans like America the way it is, whereas the less proudly pro-Americans think that America is not, but could be (with the right leader), the greatest nation on earth. Today, the United States seems on track to elect the first "less-proudly-pro-American" leader in the G7.