Thursday, November 10, 2016

Results in Trump is the new President Elect, White People Rejoice

In an epic and stunning victory that few predicted, and you had the sense few in the Republican party even saw coming, Donald Trump, the man behind the Apprentice, will be America's next President. Just when you thought Britain when full crazy with Brexit, you had the sense America could do the same with Trump, and they did. Not only was the victory a shock, it was also a boon for Republicans who now control House, Senate, and Presidency. Bush v Gore was closer, this one was a shock, but uncontested. How did it happen? How were pollsters so wrong? (And I'm talking VERY wrong in their assessment, the American people all saw the polls, but millions were happy to keep their vote tucked to their chest and cast a ballot for Trump on election day).

A few reasons:

  • The main motif, ironically appears to be one built out of a white-middle-class industrial complex. Despite very little in terms of a coherent platform, Trump appealed to the emotions of an electorate tired with putting up with the 'elites'. Wall-Street, career politicians, the kinds of people who are far and away from the upper echelons of society (ironic again because they voted for an elite as well, albeit 'self' made). The hatred for Hillary was enough to vote for the honestly of Trump, and he's not many things, but telling things exactly how they are is a strong suit that fits a lot of working class people, however, it comes with a problem.
  • The Trump vote also associates his voters (mostly whites) with the things he said, which in many ways are scary if you happen to be a minority of any kind. Xenophobia, homophobia, gender, isalamphobia, etc., were all topics that white people have a vested interest in--ways to keep things the same--retaining systemic power and privilege. There's no saying what may transpire out of a Trump regime, but minorities are worried, some even afraid
  • Along with the vote was a staunch conservative backing, particularly from evangelicals, which, again the irony, voted for a man whose character was absolutely the anti-thesis to the supposed faith of voters. There's apparently a way for the left hand to do what the right doesn't know, and evangelicals were happy to throw their full support in the ring behind Trump despite the hatred of the other (the opposite of a critical Christian tenant). 
  • Lastly, the number of Democrats who didn't vote was staggering. Almost 6 million didn't arrive at the polls which gave very close votes, particularly in Ohio, Minnesota, maybe Florida, and Vermont. Democrats committed suicide by rigging the nomination in favour of Hillary. It seems many wanted Sanders, and their anger kept them away from the polls and lead to a Trump victory. 

There will be a lot of questions over the next four years, in paritcular how many outlier things Trump will actually do rather than things he just said he would. One will leave white people angry, the other will leave minorities afraid. 

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Trump Somehow inching closer

With the US election one week away somehow republican nominee Donald Trump, is closing the gap against Hillary Clinton. What's causing the shift? Pollsters don't always tell the whole story, but it does seem as though the demographics remained unchanged. Middle-class whites are staunchly supporting Trump. Clinton's ill-timed FBI connection to her email scandal, that resurfaced this past week, probably didn't help. What seemed to be set for, just weeks ago, I'm absolutely blowout, is now looking like more of a race. What is shocking to the moderate middle is how this shift is even conceivable. Where is Trump even getting his votes? The disdain for Hillary is SO huge that Trump is reaping the benefits, but that would mean an enormous amount of tunnel vision to ignore the sheer magnitude of inexperience and incredulous things coming out of Trump's campaign (and literally his mouth.) We'll find out Tuesday.

Monday, October 3, 2016

Brexit and then Trump? Is it possible racism will prevail in the US?

There's not a single pollster, not even in the Republican Party, that has Donald Trump's wrecking ball in front. Although Clinton has had her share of problems, particularly with the email scandal that just won't go away, Trump has so many legal battles of his own to further hurt his chances. Arguably the most polarizing figure to run for presidential election in recent memory, he's also so far behind that many have guaranteed his win. But there's still a vocal group that are stanch supporters. Unfortunately, the media enjoys a story, and too often Trumps supporters come from a very specific demographic including: xenophobes, homophobes, and racists. Essentially every conservative or religious person will be voting for Trump. That also brings to the forefront the issue WHY, despite the character assassinations, and mostly from his own doing, Trump isn't losing even more support. The scary thing is the reason is probably because he's able to hit a dormant cord with a sizeable minority of people that want the 'good ol days' when jobs were plentiful and ethnic minorities were largely non-existent. The level of vocal support for some of the most troubling aspects of the Republican campaign surround the closing of borders and downright hatred of anybody who doesn't look right (right = caucasian). This is the same kind of thing that lead to Brexit. A largely fearful and easily swayed demographic, that proved to be just enough of a majority, that opted for the fear of the 'other' (immigrants), over more important things like economic policies. Speaking of which, there don't seem to be any solid plans other than outlandish and shocking statements designed to garner votes. Perhaps similar to Obama's victory, the idea or the vision speaks more than the policy (or lack thereof), and Trump's vision is an America of old, complete with segregation, a rewind of civil rights, and the reduction of women's rights. Or at least that's what's at stake if you listen to the bulk of media coverage, or most of what Trump has to say (I mean honestly, there were cringe worthy moments during the televised debate....)

Monday, June 6, 2016

Trump Presses on in Republican Race

It seems as though what seemed inevitable not mere months ago is now going to happen. Donald Trump will win the Republican primary and become the presidential nominee for the party. There is considerable infighting within the party, but over the past number of months there has been little doubt who is the unmitigated frontrunner. What are we to attribute his popularity? His supporters believe that he is the change necessary to bring balance to, ironically, a corrupt government taking care of only the elite. How billionaire Trump become the face of hope largely has to do with his rhetoric. His lack of political experience is the source gain within the party, and also the biggest problem if you were to win office. At this point it seems the presidential race will be between Trump vs. Clinton. May the best man or woman win, (and at this point it seems all the polls point to a woman).

Monday, February 8, 2016

Will Donal Trump Kill the Republican Party?

On the Democrat side it seems to be a coin flip between Hillary and Sanders. On the Republican side? The party is such a train wreck that Donald Trump appears to be the front runner. As incredulous as it sounds an utter incompetent politician (who's never actually been a politician), could conceivably be the next President. Trump's credentials are essentially Mill when it comes to running a country, which is by large utterly different than a large corporation. What's worse is that he is gaining popularity among the uneducated Republican voting class. It goes to show that soothsayers can win votes if the run an effective campaign that captures media attention through celebrity tactics. It's not so much the content, rather the taglines. It's not about the death of ideas, but how easily they can be understood by, again, a largely uneducated voting pool. I can't imagine how feels right now to be a Republican I literally watch your party implode. In that regard this is perhaps the best thing that could happen to them because it will open the door to complete reform. This might be the shift needed change Republican party forever. Frankly, this country needs it, because as it stands right now they have utterly totally and completely lost their way.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Why Nobody knows anything about peak oil or future oil pricing

as major world oil prices of around $30 a barrel, pundits are all over the map when it comes to predicting where the price goes in the future. Who can we trust? Where will price go any year? Into years? And five years? In 10 years? Everybody seems to want to have their say but nobody seems to be able to predict future prices of any sense. Occam's razor depends on choosing the simplest answer as being the most reliable. Let's take a look at the simplest answer to world oil. Price is purely based on demand. That's fundamental economics 101. World demand for oil, because of the overall economic output decline, is down. In fact, there doesn't appear to be any robust economy ready to eat up the excess supply that's currently on the market. It doesn't help that one of the world's largest economies is slowing down, that being China, I'm slowing down quickly. With demand is the other side as I already mentioned: supply. Demand is decreased worldwide yet supply has increased. The United States has produced nearly double the amount of oil from their new shale exploits. Iraq is pumping oil, Saudi Arabia's not slowing, Russia won't decrease production, OPEC will not curtail. Iran will potentially come on the market when their sanctions are lifted. Because everybody is working on the further themselves, the are all trying to take as much money as they can add to current oil prices. If you can turn profit on your creative then do it now as fast as you can; that's the current mindset. That leaves many expensive producers such as the Canadian oilsands on the outside looking in. This means apart from a catastrophe in the major oil regions, the price is likely to be depressed for a very long time and perhaps we should get used to new lows we are used to seeing 20 years ago. not only is demand diminished, the production is increasing globally. If you recall in the 1970s as many cried the end of oil production (because peak oil had been reached), the sky hasn't fallen. Once again the simplest answer is about should be looking at. The reason why we haven't hit peak oil, and may never, is because technology continues to improve meaning we can extract more oil from existing resources, existing resources wind up being bigger than we originally thought, and we keep finding new oil. What's more likely to happen, run in the scarcity of oil, as the production of a new energy that Is cheaper than oil. It's also conceivable that the clean energy sources will be ones that developed nations choose to develop and invest in. So get used to lower oil prices and hopefully you're economy is not dependent on the oil sector. It's your stay.